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Number of major hurricanes·closes in 27d

Will there be more than 4 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?

YES means Above 4

24h volume
5.57
17.8k lifetime
Open interest
5,015
Spread
1¢
0 × 5,470 at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 1¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
24h low 1¢24h high 1¢
Recent buying23% YES · 77% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,13425¢
  • ask2616¢
  • ask27715¢
  • ask13314¢
  • ask27913¢
  • ask1003¢
  • ask6072¢
  • ask5,4701¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 4 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Apr 1 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Dec 2 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Dec 2 · 3:00 PM UTC
    floor
    4
    ticker
    KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T4
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 23% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    7h ago1¢5.57bought yes
    4d ago1¢17bought no
    4d ago1¢7bought no
    10d ago1¢7bought no
    10d ago1¢100bought yes
    13d ago1¢111bought yes
    13d ago1¢80bought no
    13d ago1¢173bought no
    13d ago1¢500bought no
    13d ago1¢1.15bought no
    13d ago1¢6.85bought no
    13d ago2¢200bought no
    13d ago2¢1bought no
    13d ago2¢2bought no
    13d ago2¢2.29bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.