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How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?·closes in 14mo

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 1100 as of October 31, 2027?

YES means Above 1,100

24h volume
0
7,163 lifetime
Open interest
700
+700 over 30d
Spread
5¢
662 × 105 at the touch
24h range
–
36 recent trades
Chance of YES
19%

A YES contract costs 30¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
81%

costs 75¢

YES bid / ask
25¢ / 30¢
NO bid / ask
70¢ / 75¢
Recent buying56% YES · 44% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volAug 31Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1081¢
  • ask1,91877¢
  • ask20076¢
  • ask5573¢
  • ask12672¢
  • ask60032¢
  • ask85031¢
  • ask10530¢
spread5¢mid 28¢
  • bid66225¢
  • bid55023¢
  • bid1409¢
  • bid138¢
  • bid2427¢
  • bid2006¢
  • bid1,2465¢
  • bid8584¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call is above 1,100 as of October 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 17 · 6:52 PM UTC
closes
Oct 31, 2027 · 1:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 29, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
1100
ticker
KXIDGROUNDWATER-26AUG17-A1100
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 36 trades, 56% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9d ago19¢199bought no
9d ago19¢301bought no
17d ago21¢100bought no
17d ago21¢500bought no
17d ago23¢199bought no
17d ago23¢600bought no
17d ago23¢200bought no
17d ago23¢200bought no
17d ago23¢200bought no
17d ago23¢25bought no
19d ago26¢239bought yes
19d ago26¢500bought yes
19d ago28¢200bought no
19d ago28¢418bought no
19d ago24¢200bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.