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How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?·closes in 14mo

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 500 as of October 31, 2027?

YES means Above 500

24h volume
0
26.6k lifetime
Open interest
3,791
−2,089 over 7d
Spread
1¢
1,750 × 281 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
90%

A YES contract costs 86¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
10%

costs 15¢

YES bid / ask
85¢ / 86¢
NO bid / ask
14¢ / 15¢
Recent buying58% YES · 42% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
80¢85¢90¢95¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00099¢
  • ask1,88398¢
  • ask4497¢
  • ask24596¢
  • ask16795¢
  • ask193¢
  • ask35088¢
  • ask28186¢
spread1¢mid 86¢
  • bid1,75085¢
  • bid15049¢
  • bid39748¢
  • bid1,42743¢
  • bid1,39441¢
  • bid55020¢
  • bid15016¢
  • bid2,22315¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call is above 500 as of October 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 17 · 6:52 PM UTC
closes
Oct 31, 2027 · 1:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 29, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
500
ticker
KXIDGROUNDWATER-26AUG17-A500
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 58% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago90¢300bought no
2d ago90¢200bought no
2d ago90¢1,000bought no
2d ago90¢100bought no
2d ago91¢69bought yes
3d ago90¢200bought yes
3d ago90¢370bought yes
3d ago90¢69bought yes
3d ago90¢50bought yes
3d ago90¢200bought yes
3d ago90¢100bought yes
3d ago90¢200bought yes
9d ago91¢300bought yes
9d ago91¢500bought yes
9d ago90¢100bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.