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How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?·closes in 14mo

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 600 as of October 31, 2027?

YES means Above 600

24h volume
0
4,980 lifetime
Open interest
1,950
Spread
1¢
1,126 × 143 at the touch
24h range
–
49 recent trades
Chance of YES
81%

A YES contract costs 81¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
19%

costs 20¢

YES bid / ask
80¢ / 81¢
NO bid / ask
19¢ / 20¢
Recent buying31% YES · 69% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,43798¢
  • ask39097¢
  • ask1,10092¢
  • ask4391¢
  • ask1490¢
  • ask35087¢
  • ask65485¢
  • ask14381¢
spread1¢mid 81¢
  • bid1,12680¢
  • bid38346¢
  • bid98240¢
  • bid1,28039¢
  • bid39015¢
  • bid1,61614¢
  • bid5,4603¢
  • bid7,4302¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call is above 600 as of October 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 17 · 6:52 PM UTC
closes
Oct 31, 2027 · 1:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 29, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
600
ticker
KXIDGROUNDWATER-26AUG17-A600
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 49 trades, 31% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago81¢0.31bought yes
2d ago81¢2bought yes
2d ago81¢25bought no
2d ago85¢27bought no
2d ago85¢100bought no
9d ago81¢278bought no
9d ago82¢555bought yes
9d ago81¢36bought yes
9d ago81¢200bought yes
9d ago81¢25bought yes
9d ago81¢100bought yes
15d ago80¢227bought yes
17d ago79¢24bought no
17d ago79¢26bought no
17d ago79¢25bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.