galdor.xyz
Admin
How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?·closes in 14mo

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 700 as of October 31, 2027?

YES means Above 700

24h volume
0
7,695 lifetime
Open interest
2,019
Spread
2¢
959 × 189 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
80%

A YES contract costs 80¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
20%

costs 22¢

YES bid / ask
78¢ / 80¢
NO bid / ask
20¢ / 22¢
Recent buying38% YES · 62% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8394¢
  • ask7193¢
  • ask29492¢
  • ask35091¢
  • ask20084¢
  • ask42082¢
  • ask36581¢
  • ask18980¢
spread2¢mid 79¢
  • bid95978¢
  • bid1,35076¢
  • bid20075¢
  • bid4649¢
  • bid43748¢
  • bid1,25537¢
  • bid15019¢
  • bid3,22618¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call is above 700 as of October 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 17 · 6:52 PM UTC
closes
Oct 31, 2027 · 1:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 29, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
700
ticker
KXIDGROUNDWATER-26AUG17-A700
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 38% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago80¢20bought yes
2d ago83¢95bought no
2d ago81¢100bought no
2d ago82¢100bought no
2d ago85¢28bought yes
2d ago84¢16bought no
2d ago84¢2bought no
2d ago84¢2bought no
3d ago78¢69bought yes
3d ago78¢69bought yes
3d ago79¢50bought yes
3d ago79¢200bought yes
3d ago78¢69bought no
3d ago78¢200bought no
3d ago78¢50bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.