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How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?·closes in 14mo

Will the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call be above 800 as of October 31, 2027?

YES means Above 800

24h volume
0
5,624 lifetime
Open interest
1,100
Spread
2¢
31 × 24 at the touch
24h range
–
36 recent trades
Chance of YES
73%

A YES contract costs 77¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
27%

costs 25¢

YES bid / ask
75¢ / 77¢
NO bid / ask
23¢ / 25¢
Recent buying28% YES · 72% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3,01998¢
  • ask11797¢
  • ask21995¢
  • ask35082¢
  • ask5081¢
  • ask1,14979¢
  • ask7578¢
  • ask2477¢
spread2¢mid 76¢
  • bid3175¢
  • bid43674¢
  • bid37272¢
  • bid10071¢
  • bid35069¢
  • bid5040¢
  • bid73739¢
  • bid1,10137¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call is above 800 as of October 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 17 · 6:52 PM UTC
closes
Oct 31, 2027 · 1:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 29, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
800
ticker
KXIDGROUNDWATER-26AUG17-A800
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 36 trades, 28% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago73¢50bought yes
3d ago73¢200bought yes
3d ago73¢187bought yes
9d ago78¢212bought no
9d ago78¢10bought no
9d ago78¢21bought no
9d ago79¢235bought no
9d ago69¢200bought yes
9d ago69¢25bought yes
9d ago69¢100bought yes
9d ago69¢322bought yes
17d ago70¢200bought yes
17d ago70¢25bought yes
17d ago71¢75bought yes
17d ago71¢200bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.