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Impeach a member of Trump's cabinet·closes in 16mo

Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume
0
37.8k lifetime
Open interest
19.5k
Spread
16¢
5 × 18 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
74%

A YES contract costs 89¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
26%

costs 27¢

YES bid / ask
73¢ / 89¢
NO bid / ask
11¢ / 27¢
Recent buying88% YES · 12% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00097¢
  • ask1,00097¢
  • ask13896¢
  • ask12296¢
  • ask2392¢
  • ask1091¢
  • ask6.2490¢
  • ask1889¢
spread16¢mid 81¢
  • bid573¢
  • bid172¢
  • bid571¢
  • bid1,02168¢
  • bid5067¢
  • bid8042¢
  • bid15041¢
  • bid11140¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a member of the cabinet is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The cabinet is defined as the following: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, and White House Chief of Staff.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 12, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXIMPEACHCABINET-28JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 88% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago74¢1,000bought yes
3d ago74¢5bought yes
4d ago69¢5bought no
4d ago70¢5bought no
4d ago69¢15bought no
4d ago68¢9bought no
5d ago73¢5.37bought yes
7d ago67¢36bought no
7d ago68¢2bought no
13d ago75¢35bought yes
13d ago74¢15bought yes
13d ago75¢2.13bought yes
20d ago68¢10bought no
23d ago72¢4.78bought yes
23d ago73¢856bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.