galdor.xyz
Admin
Impeach a member of Trump's cabinet·closes in 28mo

Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Before Jan 20, 2029

24h volume
0
7,369 lifetime
Open interest
1,721
Spread
9¢
10 × 12 at the touch
24h range
–
30 recent trades
Chance of YES
79%

A YES contract costs 84¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
21%

costs 25¢

YES bid / ask
75¢ / 84¢
NO bid / ask
16¢ / 25¢
Recent buying65% YES · 35% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20097¢
  • ask1497¢
  • ask3397¢
  • ask4396¢
  • ask2090¢
  • ask60086¢
  • ask11585¢
  • ask1284¢
spread9¢mid 80¢
  • bid1075¢
  • bid574¢
  • bid1,00073¢
  • bid15052¢
  • bid15050¢
  • bid15545¢
  • bid50044¢
  • bid1040¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a member of the cabinet is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The cabinet is defined as the following: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, and White House Chief of Staff.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 12, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXIMPEACHCABINET-29JAN20
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 30 trades, 65% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago78¢1bought yes
3d ago78¢5bought yes
3d ago79¢1,000bought yes
3d ago78¢63bought yes
7d ago72¢1bought no
10d ago78¢1bought yes
15d ago70¢2bought no
16d ago74¢2bought no
16d ago71¢92bought no
19d ago72¢161bought no
19d ago73¢16bought no
19d ago73¢73bought no
27d ago76¢2bought yes
1mo ago75¢10bought yes
1mo ago75¢5.39bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.