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INXDIRY·closes in 3mo

Will the S&P 500 be above 7800 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

YES means 7,800 or above

24h volume
0
3,503 lifetime
Open interest
1,781
Spread
1¢
8.92 × 250 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
51%

A YES contract costs 48¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
49%

costs 53¢

YES bid / ask
47¢ / 48¢
NO bid / ask
52¢ / 53¢
Recent buying26% YES · 74% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask16268¢
  • ask5064¢
  • ask10463¢
  • ask5162¢
  • ask12652¢
  • ask5051¢
  • ask26050¢
  • ask25048¢
spread1¢mid 48¢
  • bid8.9247¢
  • bid2544¢
  • bid6343¢
  • bid7041¢
  • bid4540¢
  • bid37913¢
  • bid5312¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 7800, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 29 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC
floor
7800.0001
ticker
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T7800
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 26% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago51¢19bought yes
6d ago52¢0.92bought yes
6d ago52¢44bought yes
7d ago51¢19bought yes
7d ago51¢38bought yes
8d ago47¢1.67bought no
9d ago58¢1.67bought yes
10d ago48¢37bought no
13d ago61¢100bought yes
14d ago58¢16bought yes
15d ago57¢19bought yes
15d ago57¢46bought yes
15d ago56¢43bought yes
15d ago56¢50bought yes
15d ago54¢8.34bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.