Will the S&P 500 be above 8400 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
YES means 8,400 or above
- 24h volume
- 0
- 264 lifetime
- Open interest
- 158
- +147 over 90d
- Spread
- 5¢
- 0 × 14 at the touch
- 24h range
- 5¢ – 31¢
- 16 recent trades
A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 100¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 8400, then the market resolves to Yes.
- opened
- May 29 · 2:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC
- floor
- 8400.0001
- ticker
- KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8400
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Recent trades
Over the last 16 trades, 46% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | 5¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 4d ago | 6¢ | 27 | bought yes |
| 10d ago | 6¢ | 5 | bought no |
| 11d ago | 6¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 11d ago | 6¢ | 5 | bought no |
| 12d ago | 7¢ | 50 | bought no |
| 16d ago | 10¢ | 3.59 | bought no |
| 16d ago | 9¢ | 5 | bought no |
| 16d ago | 7¢ | 8.36 | bought no |
| 16d ago | 6¢ | 9.9 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 19¢ | 37 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 18¢ | 13 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 15¢ | 6.69 | bought no |
| 2mo ago | 16¢ | 5 | bought no |
| 2mo ago | 16¢ | 5 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.