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IRS tax collection·closes in 16mo

Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?

YES means For tax year 2026

24h volume
0
13.7k lifetime
Open interest
5,012
+0 over 24h
Spread
7¢
500 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
79%

A YES contract costs 89¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
21%

costs 18¢

YES bid / ask
82¢ / 89¢
NO bid / ask
11¢ / 18¢
Recent buying48% YES · 52% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
75¢80¢85¢90¢95¢volSep 20, 3:55 PMSep 21, 1:59 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,05399¢
  • ask2,45598¢
  • ask1,11497¢
  • ask57496¢
  • ask4495¢
  • ask50090¢
  • ask589¢
spread7¢mid 86¢
  • bid50082¢
  • bid8545¢
  • bid71244¢
  • bid1040¢
  • bid55010¢
  • bid4445¢
  • bid2,5003¢
  • bid1,1112¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the IRS collects more tax revenue in 2026 than 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 3 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXIRSCOLLECT-26
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 48% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago79¢40bought no
7d ago86¢1.08bought yes
7d ago82¢263bought no
8d ago90¢1.03bought yes
11d ago83¢51bought no
11d ago84¢4.89bought no
12d ago89¢2bought yes
13d ago89¢40bought yes
13d ago89¢0.55bought yes
14d ago85¢3.11bought no
14d ago85¢13bought no
14d ago89¢3.11bought yes
14d ago89¢1.11bought yes
14d ago89¢2.23bought yes
15d ago90¢68bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.