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How many new countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2028?·closed · YES

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 1 after Issuance and before 2028?

YES means At least 1

24h volume
0
1,870 lifetime
Open interest
1,300
Spread
100¢
0 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
83%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
17%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
Recent buying88% YES · 12% NO

This market is closed and resolved YES. Prices shown are the last ones traded.

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Empty book.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement is at least 1 after Issuance and before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Examples of qualifying agreements include the agreements signed in 2020 and 2021 between Israel and Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Morocco. Each country may be counted only once. Countries that have normalized relations with Israel as of Issuance do not qualify. A country whose relations with Israel existed previously but are not in effect as of Issuance may qualify.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 21 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Aug 18 · 12:14 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
1
ticker
KXISRNORMCOUNT-27DEC31-AL1
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 88% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1mo ago83¢5bought yes
1mo ago83¢5bought yes
1mo ago82¢5bought yes
1mo ago82¢12bought yes
1mo ago82¢17bought yes
1mo ago82¢0.67bought yes
1mo ago82¢7.6bought yes
1mo ago82¢2.09bought yes
1mo ago82¢1.84bought yes
1mo ago82¢1.03bought yes
1mo ago82¢13bought yes
1mo ago81¢17bought yes
1mo ago81¢20bought yes
1mo ago80¢1bought yes
1mo ago81¢23bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.