Will Ernesto Maria Ruffini become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
YES means Ernesto Maria Ruffini
- 24h volume
- 0
- 689 lifetime
- Open interest
- 645
- Spread
- 4¢
- 0 × 200 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 10 recent trades
A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 100¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Ernesto Maria Ruffini becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.
- parliament or legislature of <country>
- official government gazette or equivalent official publication of <country>
- office of the head of state of <country>
- major national news outlets of <country>
- Financial Times
- the Associated Press
- official government websites of <country>
- Reuters
- The Guardian
- BBC
- The Washington Post
- Bloomberg News
- The New York Times
- opened
- Aug 11 · 12:32 AM UTC
- closes
- Dec 22, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Dec 22, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXITALYPM-27DEC22-ERUF
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Recent trades
Over the last 10 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1mo ago | 3¢ | 43 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 3¢ | 200 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 3¢ | 200 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 3¢ | 200 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 3¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 3¢ | 20 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 3¢ | 20 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 3¢ | 3 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 2¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 14¢ | 1 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.