galdor.xyz
Admin
Prime Minister of Italy after the next election·closes in 27mo

Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

YES means Elly Schlein

24h volume
0
923 lifetime
Open interest
638
Spread
10¢
400 × 400 at the touch
24h range
–
23 recent trades
Chance of YES
18%

A YES contract costs 28¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
82%

costs 82¢

YES bid / ask
18¢ / 28¢
NO bid / ask
72¢ / 82¢
Recent buying6% YES · 94% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20064¢
  • ask68463¢
  • ask562¢
  • ask10049¢
  • ask40028¢
spread10¢mid 23¢
  • bid40018¢
  • bid1409¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Elly Schlein becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 11 · 12:32 AM UTC
closes
Dec 22, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 22, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXITALYPM-27DEC22-ESCH
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 110¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 23 trades, 6% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago18¢47bought no
1mo ago21¢0.45bought yes
1mo ago21¢7.22bought yes
1mo ago19¢25bought no
1mo ago19¢104bought no
1mo ago19¢25bought no
1mo ago20¢47bought yes
1mo ago20¢0.04bought yes
1mo ago20¢0.04bought yes
1mo ago18¢200bought no
1mo ago18¢200bought no
1mo ago18¢3.61bought no
1mo ago18¢33bought no
1mo ago18¢167bought no
1mo ago18¢3.61bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.