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Prime Minister of Italy after the next election·closes in 27mo

Will Silvia Salis become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

YES means Silvia Salis

24h volume
0
891 lifetime
Open interest
646
+0 over 30d
Spread
4¢
0 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 100¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1638¢
  • ask71937¢
  • ask2035¢
  • ask2330¢
  • ask2325¢
  • ask10023¢
  • ask2005¢
  • ask2004¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Silvia Salis becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Aug 11 · 12:32 AM UTC
    closes
    Dec 22, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Dec 22, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXITALYPM-27DEC22-SSAL
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 110¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 12 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    1mo ago3¢43bought no
    1mo ago3¢200bought no
    1mo ago3¢200bought no
    1mo ago3¢200bought no
    1mo ago3¢200bought no
    1mo ago3¢2bought no
    1mo ago3¢20bought no
    1mo ago3¢20bought no
    1mo ago3¢3bought no
    1mo ago1¢1bought no
    1mo ago16¢1bought no
    1mo ago16¢1bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.