Italy Senate ·closes in 28mo

Who will win the next Italian Senate election?

YES means Brothers of Italy

24h volume: 0; 427 lifetime
Open interest: 292; +0 over 24h
Spread: 5¢; 12 × 5 at the touch
24h range: –

Chance of YES

54%

A YES contract costs 58¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

46%

costs 47¢

YES bid / ask

53¢ / 58¢

NO bid / ask

42¢ / 47¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask1,000100¢
ask49100¢
ask1,00096¢
ask2,26294¢
ask20094¢
ask2893¢
ask50059¢
ask558¢

spread5¢mid 56¢

bid1253¢
bid50051¢
bid377¢
bid547¢
bid2,3317¢
bid1,0004¢
bid1,0000¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the winner of the next Italian Senate election is Brothers of Italy, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources

Ministry of the Interior

opened: Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: Dec 30, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXITALYSENATE-27-FDI

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 108¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.