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January 6th liability·closes in 28mo

Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in civil court?

YES means Before his term ends

24h volume
1.97
8,138 lifetime
Open interest
1,183
−176 over 7d
Spread
8¢
10 × 15 at the touch
24h range
15¢ – 19¢
37 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%−2

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 25¢
NO bid / ask
75¢ / 83¢
24h low 15¢24h high 19¢
Recent buying48% YES · 52% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask53665¢
  • ask23664¢
  • ask4463¢
  • ask1462¢
  • ask5556¢
  • ask11734¢
  • ask20026¢
  • ask1525¢
spread8¢mid 21¢
  • bid1017¢
  • bid20016¢
  • bid9115¢
  • bid9310¢
  • bid6.369¢
  • bid147¢
  • bid707¢
  • bid1007¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Donald J. Trump is held liable for civil damages in any court for any action related to the Capitol Attack on January 6, 2021, before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 3, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXJAN6CASES
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in any court?.

Recent trades

Over the last 37 trades, 48% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8h ago15¢1.97bought no
6d ago18¢96bought no
6d ago17¢73bought no
6d ago19¢5bought no
6d ago17¢395bought no
6d ago19¢10bought no
7d ago29¢5bought yes
7d ago29¢5bought yes
7d ago30¢6.19bought yes
13d ago30¢0.07bought yes
13d ago22¢0.07bought no
13d ago34¢76bought yes
13d ago27¢3bought yes
13d ago24¢500bought yes
14d ago18¢59bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.