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Johannesburg mayoral election·closes in 16mo

Will Loyiso Masuku win the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections?

YES means Loyiso Masuku

24h volume
0
571 lifetime
Open interest
239
+134 over 7d
Spread
4¢
35 × 500 at the touch
24h range
–
9 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 99¢
Recent buying77% YES · 23% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volSep 16Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask23241¢
  • ask66940¢
  • ask7339¢
  • ask138¢
  • ask435¢
  • ask130¢
  • ask125¢
  • ask5005¢
spread4¢mid 3¢
  • bid351¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Loyiso Masuku wins the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections, then the market resolves to Yes.

Note: Johannesburg voters elect the municipal council, and the executive mayor is then chosen indirectly by a vote of that council This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 9 · 8:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXJOHANNESBURGMAYOR-26DEC31-LMAS
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 9 trades, 77% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago5¢21bought yes
4d ago7¢5bought yes
5d ago6¢108bought yes
5d ago5¢50bought yes
29d ago1¢15bought no
29d ago2¢9.5bought no
29d ago2¢3bought no
29d ago2¢21bought no
29d ago2¢6bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.