Will SCOTUS overturn Trump's $83.3 million Carroll judgment?
YES means Before 2028
- 24h volume
- 0
- 433 lifetime
- Open interest
- 182
- Spread
- 6¢
- 5 × 2.18 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 12 recent trades
A YES contract costs 12¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 94¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask10099¢
- ask40072¢
- ask46565¢
- ask25664¢
- ask20015¢
- ask8113¢
- ask2.1812¢
- bid56¢
- bid2005¢
- bid702¢
- bid1001¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the U.S. Supreme Court overturns in full the February 8, 2024 judgment awarding E. Jean Carroll $83.3 million in compensatory and punitive damages in Donald J. Trump v. E. Jean Carroll, No. 26-141, or United States v. E. Jean Carroll, et al., No. 26-142, including any consolidation of those petitions before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
A ruling qualifies only if it leaves none of the February 8, 2024 judgment enforceable against Donald J. Trump. The ruling must: Be issued by the U.S. Supreme Court in Donald J. Trump v. E. Jean Carroll, No. 26-141, or United States v. E. Jean Carroll, et al., No. 26-142, including any consolidation of those petitions Address the matter described by the specified judgment Be issued through a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: A grant or denial of certiorari, stay, briefing order, scheduling order, or other order that does not itself overturn the full judgment A ruling on presidential immunity, Westfall Act substitution, or another procedural issue that does not require the full judgment to be vacated or set aside A partial reversal, damages reduction, modification, GVR, or remand that does not itself require the full judgment to be vacated or set aside A ruling in Carroll II, No. 25-573, or another separate Carroll proceeding Oral rulings from the bench unless reduced to a written order Tentative rulings that are not made final Draft opinions that leak but are not officially issued Settlements or voluntary dismissals Administrative or scheduling orders For clarity: A ruling in either No. 26-141 or No. 26-142 counts if it matches the specified judgment Per curiam opinions and summary orders count if they match the specified judgment If multiple justices issue separate opinions, the majority or plurality opinion controls
- opened
- Sep 1 · 9:30 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXJUDGMENT-CARROLL28
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Recent trades
Over the last 12 trades, 52% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7d ago | 11¢ | 25 | bought yes |
| 14d ago | 9¢ | 2.18 | bought no |
| 15d ago | 13¢ | 100 | bought yes |
| 16d ago | 12¢ | 5.62 | bought no |
| 16d ago | 12¢ | 50 | bought no |
| 18d ago | 13¢ | 100 | bought yes |
| 18d ago | 15¢ | 58 | bought no |
| 18d ago | 15¢ | 42 | bought no |
| 18d ago | 15¢ | 18 | bought no |
| 19d ago | 15¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 19d ago | 15¢ | 5.81 | bought no |
| 19d ago | 20¢ | 25 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.