Will Meta's $25 billion New Mexico penalty be cut on appeal?

If the New Mexico Court of Appeals, the New Mexico Supreme Court or the U.S. Supreme Court reduces, vacates or reverses, in whole or in part, the roughly $25 billion civil penalty imposed on Meta in the district court's October 21, 2026 order, including as later amended or reentered by the district court in State of New Mexico v. Facebook, Inc., No. D-101-CV-202100132 (N.M. First Jud. Dist. Ct.), or any appeal thereof before Jan 1, 2032, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market resolves on a written ruling of the New Mexico Court of Appeals, the New Mexico Supreme Court or the U.S. Supreme Court. The penalty under review is the civil penalty in force when that court rules, whether the roughly $25 billion ordered on Oct 21, 2026 or an amount the district court later changes. A ruling that vacates or reverses the penalty, or any part of it, resolves the market to Yes, including a remand in which the district court may impose the penalty again. A ruling that reduces the penalty by any amount resolves the market to Yes. The ruling must: Be issued by the New Mexico Court of Appeals, the New Mexico Supreme Court or the U.S. Supreme Court in State of New Mexico v. Facebook, Inc., No. D-101-CV-202100132 (N.M. First Jud. Dist. Ct.), or any appeal thereof Address the matter described by the specified judgment Be issued through a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Affirmance of the penalty in full A ruling that vacates or reverses the penalty only on grounds raised by the State, or only to reinstate or increase it A vacatur, reversal or dismissal entered because the parties settled or the appeal became moot, without a ruling on the merits of the penalty A change to the penalty made by the district court, including on a post-trial motion A ruling that affects only an injunction, interest, costs, attorney fees or the amount of a bond A stay order or an order granting, denying or dismissing a petition for review, certiorari or rehearing that does not itself reduce, vacate or reverse the penalty Oral rulings from the bench unless reduced to a written order Tentative rulings that are not made final Draft opinions that leak but are not officially issued Settlements or voluntary dismissals Administrative or scheduling orders Orders to show cause Minute orders that do not address the substantive issue in the specified judgment For clarity: If the case is dismissed for lack of jurisdiction, that counts as a ruling only if the judgment refers to jurisdiction Sua sponte rulings count if they match the specified judgment Per curiam opinions and summary orders count as rulings If multiple judges issue separate opinions, the majority/plurality opinion controls This market is eligible for accelerated determination to No once any of the following occurs: The penalty has become final, with no appeal or petition for review pending and the time to seek one, including a petition to the U.S. Supreme Court, expired Every pending appeal and petition for review has been dismissed, withdrawn or denied, with no further review available The parties have settled and no appeal or petition for review remains pending If no qualifying ruling is issued after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2032, this market resolves to No.

opened

Oct 27 · 9:00 PM UTC

closes

Jan 1, 2032 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early

settles by

Jan 8, 2032 · 3:00 PM UTC

ticker

KXJUDGMENT-METANM32