Court judgments·closes in 16mo

Will United States Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit rule holds that the False Claims Act’s qui tam provisions violate Article II of the Constitution when the United States declines to intervene in the underlying False Claims Act action and the private relator continues the suit?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume
0
3,113 lifetime
Open interest
2,299
+1,798 over 30d
Spread
48 × 200 at the touch
24h range
19 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 99¢
Recent buying13% YES · 87% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volAug 23Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00096¢
  • ask1,00083¢
  • ask2582¢
  • ask3680¢
  • ask49755¢
  • ask43954¢
  • ask13145¢
  • ask200
spreadmid
  • bid48
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If United States Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit holds that the False Claims Act’s qui tam provisions violate Article II of the Constitution when the United States declines to intervene in the underlying False Claims Act action and the private relator continues the suit in United States ex rel. Clarissa Zafirov v. Florida Medical Associates, LLC, et al., before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The ruling must: Be issued by United States Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit in United States ex rel. Clarissa Zafirov v. Florida Medical Associates, LLC, et al., Address the matter described by the specified judgment Be issued through a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Oral rulings from the bench unless reduced to a written order Tentative rulings that are not made final Draft opinions that leak but are not officially issued Settlements or voluntary dismissals Administrative or scheduling orders Orders to show cause Minute orders that do not address the substantive issue in the specified judgment For clarity: If the case is dismissed for lack of jurisdiction, that counts as a ruling only if the judgment refers to jurisdiction Sua sponte rulings count if they match the specified judgment Per curiam opinions and summary orders count as rulings If multiple judges issue separate opinions, the majority/plurality opinion controls

opened
Jul 23 · 7:49 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXJUDGMENT-USCLZAFL28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will the 11th Circuit rule non-intervened False Claims Act qui tam suits unconstitutional?.

Recent trades

Over the last 19 trades, 13% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8d ago200bought yes
13d ago0.74bought no
16d ago200bought no
16d ago200bought yes
17d ago1bought no
19d ago48¢1bought yes
19d ago49¢0.74bought yes
19d ago1.74bought no
19d ago10¢1bought yes
19d ago61¢1bought yes
19d ago21¢148bought no
19d ago21¢600bought no
19d ago44¢500bought no
19d ago51¢500bought no
19d ago22¢200bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.