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Kamala gov ·closes in 14mo

Will Kamala Harris run for California Governor?

YES means Before 2027

24h volume
0
52.2k lifetime
Open interest
10.3k
+489 over 90d
Spread
3¢
100 × 58 at the touch
24h range
–
32 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 99¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00010¢
  • ask709¢
  • ask8009¢
  • ask1,0006¢
  • ask1505¢
  • ask755¢
  • ask55¢
  • ask584¢
spread3¢mid 3¢
  • bid1001¢
  • bid400¢
  • bid121.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Kamala Harris runs for Governorship of California before Nov 4, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Note: FEC filings alone do not resolve this market to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 9, 2025 · 5:30 PM UTC
closes
Nov 4, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 4, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXKAMALAGOV-27
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Kamala Harris run for California Governor?.

Recent trades

Over the last 32 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago2¢50bought no
5d ago2¢16bought no
5d ago1¢2bought no
5d ago1¢300bought no
5d ago1¢500bought no
5d ago1¢440bought no
5d ago4¢5bought no
5d ago4¢1,000bought no
5d ago2¢121bought no
5d ago0¢50bought no
5d ago4¢10bought no
5d ago0¢393bought no
6d ago6¢77bought yes
6d ago9¢30bought yes
6d ago8¢296bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.