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Kamala Harris announces presidential run by...?·closes in 13mo

Will Kamala Harris announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?

YES means Before Oct 1, 2027

24h volume
500
2,444 lifetime
Open interest
2,181
+2,173 over 90d
Spread
4¢
8.83 × 10 at the touch
24h range
69¢ – 69¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
69%+3

A YES contract costs 69¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
31%

costs 35¢

YES bid / ask
65¢ / 69¢
NO bid / ask
31¢ / 35¢
24h low 69¢24h high 69¢
Recent buying23% YES · 77% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢volJul 28Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask23691¢
  • ask60789¢
  • ask15088¢
  • ask15087¢
  • ask53472¢
  • ask58671¢
  • ask8370¢
  • ask1069¢
spread4¢mid 67¢
  • bid8.8365¢
  • bid50064¢
  • bid14931¢
  • bid94926¢
  • bid2925¢
  • bid3366¢
  • bid2,5005¢
  • bid3,7103¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Kamala Harris has announced that she will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 27 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 1, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXKAMALARUN-28-27OCT01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 23% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9h ago69¢499bought no
11h ago69¢1bought no
3d ago66¢14bought no
5d ago69¢3bought yes
5d ago69¢5bought yes
5d ago69¢10bought yes
5d ago72¢466bought no
5d ago72¢34bought no
6d ago67¢19bought no
6d ago68¢10bought no
6d ago66¢500bought no
6d ago69¢69bought no
6d ago70¢100bought no
10d ago75¢3.42bought no
10d ago69¢0.29bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.