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Keystone XL final investment decision·closes in 16mo

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2028

24h volume
0
0 lifetime
Open interest
0
Spread
8¢
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 73¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 35¢

YES bid / ask
65¢ / 73¢
NO bid / ask
27¢ / 35¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask25295¢
  • ask20073¢
spread8¢mid 69¢
  • bid565¢
  • bid20064¢
  • bid1,5425¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If South Bow officially announces a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Only a decision to proceed with construction of South Bow's Prairie Connector project resolves this market. The original Gulf Coast route of Keystone XL is out of scope, and a decision to cancel, shelve or further defer the project does not resolve any market to Yes. Permits, shipper commitments, open-season results and cost estimates do not on their own resolve any market. The announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, securities filings, earnings calls, investor presentations, verified accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. Rumours, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information and third-party announcements without company confirmation do not qualify.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 20 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jul 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXKEYSTONEFID-28-28JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.