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When will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica?·closes in 6mo

Will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica before Apr 1, 2027?

YES means Before Apr 1, 2027

24h volume
0
20.0k lifetime
Open interest
7,601
−691 over 30d
Spread
7¢
76 × 200 at the touch
24h range
20¢ – 76¢
41 recent trades
Chance of YES
24%

A YES contract costs 29¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
76%

costs 78¢

YES bid / ask
22¢ / 29¢
NO bid / ask
71¢ / 78¢
24h low 20¢24h high 76¢
Recent buying71% YES · 29% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volAug 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask55096¢
  • ask50081¢
  • ask10080¢
  • ask21279¢
  • ask10064¢
  • ask50963¢
  • ask20030¢
  • ask20029¢
spread7¢mid 26¢
  • bid7622¢
  • bid20021¢
  • bid2,50020¢
  • bid578¢
  • bid4777¢
  • bid3336¢
  • bid2,0805¢
  • bid5004¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Kari Lake is the first person confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No.

Settlement sources
opened
May 12 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 1, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXLAKECONF-26MAY12-APR01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 41 trades, 71% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10d ago24¢200bought yes
10d ago21¢200bought yes
10d ago21¢0.32bought yes
10d ago26¢200bought yes
10d ago24¢200bought yes
10d ago21¢164bought no
10d ago20¢1,297bought no
14d ago73¢200bought no
14d ago76¢200bought no
1mo ago77¢200bought no
1mo ago77¢5bought no
1mo ago77¢0.2bought no
1mo ago83¢5bought yes
1mo ago82¢97bought no
1mo ago80¢200bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.