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When will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica?·closes in 3mo

Will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
0
17.6k lifetime
Open interest
5,220
+2,875 over 90d
Spread
4¢
5 × 31 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
23%

A YES contract costs 23¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
77%

costs 81¢

YES bid / ask
19¢ / 23¢
NO bid / ask
77¢ / 81¢
Recent buying67% YES · 33% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢100¢volJun 26Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask30076¢
  • ask90075¢
  • ask21374¢
  • ask4473¢
  • ask560¢
  • ask20027¢
  • ask10024¢
  • ask3123¢
spread4¢mid 21¢
  • bid519¢
  • bid20018¢
  • bid14714¢
  • bid2,50013¢
  • bid1,2857¢
  • bid3336¢
  • bid4005¢
  • bid1,0504¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Kari Lake is the first person confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No.

Settlement sources
opened
May 12 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXLAKECONF-26MAY12-JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 67% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago23¢200bought yes
5d ago21¢200bought yes
5d ago19¢200bought yes
6d ago18¢161bought no
10d ago17¢2bought yes
10d ago26¢192bought yes
10d ago23¢17bought no
10d ago23¢28bought no
10d ago74¢7bought yes
10d ago70¢6.44bought yes
10d ago19¢200bought yes
10d ago30¢20bought no
10d ago31¢70bought no
10d ago31¢9bought no
10d ago24¢324bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.