Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Oct 1, 2026?

If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes. "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion for this Contract. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.

opened

Sep 17 · 4:00 AM UTC

closes

Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early

settles by

Jan 8, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC

ticker

KXLEAVEMERZ-29JAN01-26OCT01