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Will another country leave OPEC?·closes in 3mo

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

YES means Yes

24h volume
0
24.7k lifetime
Open interest
4,193
−1,153 over 90d
Spread
7¢
5 × 100 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
19%

A YES contract costs 18¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
81%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask
11¢ / 18¢
NO bid / ask
82¢ / 89¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask85066¢
  • ask1,81054¢
  • ask2,32753¢
  • ask50031¢
  • ask20029¢
  • ask15328¢
  • ask2527¢
  • ask10018¢
spread7¢mid 15¢
  • bid511¢
  • bid0.9310¢
  • bid3.047¢
  • bid1505¢
  • bid1,3413¢
  • bid1,2192¢
  • bid511¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any member state of OPEC announces they are leaving the organization before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 28 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXLEAVEOPEC-27
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.