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U.S. labor force participation rate at year-end·closes in 4mo

Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 be above 59.00%?

YES means Above 59.00%

24h volume
0
3,995 lifetime
Open interest
2,210
+1,210 over 90d
Spread
3¢
100 × 2,210 at the touch
24h range
–
14 recent trades
Chance of YES
98%

A YES contract costs 99¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
2%

costs 4¢

YES bid / ask
96¢ / 99¢
NO bid / ask
1¢ / 4¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
85¢90¢95¢100¢volSep 4Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,21099¢
spread3¢mid 98¢
  • bid10096¢
  • bid98895¢
  • bid20092¢
  • bid1,47648¢
  • bid4947¢
  • bid55043¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 is above 59.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this market, “year-end” means the December 2026 reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. The market will resolve based on the first value published for December 2026. Later revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution. If Trading Economics is unavailable or does not publish the relevant December 2026 value, Kalshi may use the corresponding value from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics or FRED series CIVPART. Values will be compared as published without additional rounding.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 3 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2027 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 15, 2027 · 1:30 PM UTC
floor
59
ticker
KXLFPRATEEOY-27JAN08-T59.00
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 14 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
15d ago98¢640bought yes
15d ago98¢5bought yes
16d ago97¢500bought yes
16d ago97¢40bought yes
17d ago94¢980bought yes
17d ago94¢5bought yes
17d ago94¢25bought yes
17d ago97¢57bought yes
17d ago98¢343bought yes
17d ago97¢200bought yes
17d ago92¢200bought yes
17d ago86¢600bought yes
17d ago86¢200bought yes
17d ago87¢200bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.