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U.S. labor force participation rate at year-end·closes in 4mo

Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 be above 61.00%?

YES means Above 61.00%

24h volume
0
2,037 lifetime
Open interest
1,335
+1,135 over 90d
Spread
9¢
200 × 1.28 at the touch
24h range
–
36 recent trades
Chance of YES
85%

A YES contract costs 84¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
15%

costs 25¢

YES bid / ask
75¢ / 84¢
NO bid / ask
16¢ / 25¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢75¢100¢volSep 4Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2.4999¢
  • ask20085¢
  • ask1.2884¢
spread9¢mid 80¢
  • bid20075¢
  • bid1.9548¢
  • bid10047¢
  • bid27313¢
  • bid1,16512¢
  • bid6.271¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2026 is above 61.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this market, “year-end” means the December 2026 reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. The market will resolve based on the first value published for December 2026. Later revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution. If Trading Economics is unavailable or does not publish the relevant December 2026 value, Kalshi may use the corresponding value from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics or FRED series CIVPART. Values will be compared as published without additional rounding.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 3 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2027 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 15, 2027 · 1:30 PM UTC
floor
61
ticker
KXLFPRATEEOY-27JAN08-T61.00
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 36 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10d ago85¢8.65bought yes
10d ago84¢1.35bought yes
16d ago89¢10bought yes
16d ago92¢189bought yes
16d ago91¢0.9bought yes
16d ago92¢500bought yes
16d ago91¢0.9bought yes
16d ago80¢0.9bought no
17d ago39¢200bought yes
17d ago38¢25bought yes
17d ago37¢12bought yes
17d ago37¢8bought yes
17d ago37¢11bought yes
17d ago37¢5bought yes
17d ago37¢8bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.