Which of these state or local laws will pass?·closes in 9mo

Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?

YES means Yes

24h volume
0
10.0k lifetime
Open interest
4,339
+4,339 over 90d
Spread
4,165 × 2,789 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
36%

A YES contract costs 38¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
64%

costs 63¢

YES bid / ask
37¢ / 38¢
NO bid / ask
62¢ / 63¢
Recent buying19% YES · 81% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

20¢30¢40¢50¢volSep 6Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask51773¢
  • ask1,89072¢
  • ask4671¢
  • ask50042¢
  • ask5041¢
  • ask30040¢
  • ask5039¢
  • ask2,78938¢
spreadmid 38¢
  • bid4,16537¢
  • bid2013¢
  • bid4912¢
  • bid55011¢
  • bid2,454
  • bid5,200
  • bid7,150
  • bid8,425
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If an act permanently lowering the state sales and use tax on food (SNAP-eligible groceries) below 2% is enacted in Alabama before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the legislation to become binding law. Standard legislation requiring executive approval: final passage by all required legislative bodies, executive signature OR becoming law despite executive inaction OR successful veto override, and satisfaction of any required waiting periods Legislation not requiring executive approval: final passage and completion of required waiting periods Constitutional amendments: passage with required supermajorities and completion of ratification processes Executive orders: official signature, publication in official government records, and legal effectiveness The following do NOT constitute enactment: Legislative passage without completed executive action Passage by only some required bodies Provisional passage Non-binding resolutions Draft orders Enactment occurs when all requirements are completed, regardless of pending judicial challenges.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 17 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Jul 1, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jul 8, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXLOCALLAW-ALSNAP-27JUL01
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 19% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago36¢1.62bought yes
3d ago36¢88bought yes
3d ago36¢160bought yes
3d ago36¢89bought yes
3d ago36¢200bought yes
3d ago36¢50bought yes
3d ago35¢0.63bought no
4d ago35¢2.13bought no
8d ago36¢3bought yes
8d ago35¢3bought no
9d ago36¢19bought yes
9d ago36¢0.01bought yes
9d ago37¢2bought no
9d ago37¢14bought no
9d ago37¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.