Which of these state or local laws will pass?·closes in 10d

Will California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?

YES means Yes

24h volume
12
16.9k lifetime
Open interest
11.7k
Spread
0 × 417 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 100¢
Recent buying83% YES · 17% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask123¢
  • ask2522¢
  • ask2,00017¢
  • ask1,25015¢
  • ask1,88514¢
  • ask30010¢
  • ask200
  • ask417
spreadmid
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If legislation requiring California state agencies that collect ancestry or ethnicity data to provide a separate category for Jewish ancestry or ethnicity is enacted in California before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the legislation to become binding law. Standard legislation requiring executive approval: final passage by all required legislative bodies, executive signature OR becoming law despite executive inaction OR successful veto override, and satisfaction of any required waiting periods Legislation not requiring executive approval: final passage and completion of required waiting periods Constitutional amendments: passage with required supermajorities and completion of ratification processes Executive orders: official signature, publication in official government records, and legal effectiveness The following do NOT constitute enactment: Legislative passage without completed executive action Passage by only some required bodies Provisional passage Non-binding resolutions Draft orders Enactment occurs when all requirements are completed, regardless of pending judicial challenges.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Aug 18 · 12:00 AM UTC
    closes
    Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Oct 8 · 2:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXLOCALLAW-CAJEWISH-26OCT01
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    This is the only market in Will California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 83% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    9h ago1bought yes
    11h ago4bought yes
    11h ago5bought yes
    11h ago2bought yes
    5d ago1bought yes
    5d ago131bought no
    7d ago2.03bought no
    8d ago182bought no
    8d ago200bought no
    8d ago8.01bought no
    9d ago2bought no
    10d ago15bought yes
    10d ago3,000bought yes
    10d ago13¢7.02bought yes
    10d ago73bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.