KXLOCALLAW·closes in 10mo

Will New Mexico expand its FAIR Plan?

YES means Yes

24h volume
0
54 lifetime
Open interest
0
Spread
4,066 × 3,426 at the touch
24h range
Chance of YES
38%

A YES contract costs 40¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
62%

costs 61¢

YES bid / ask
39¢ / 40¢
NO bid / ask
60¢ / 61¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,16890¢
  • ask20081¢
  • ask1,89276¢
  • ask5075¢
  • ask54072¢
  • ask1,92371¢
  • ask90042¢
  • ask3,42640¢
spreadmid 40¢
  • bid4,06639¢
  • bid50038¢
  • bid4811¢
  • bid2,13110¢
  • bid7,710
  • bid9,070
  • bid12.1k
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If legislation expressly setting or requiring dwelling coverage of at least $500,000 under the FAIR Plan Act or a successor state residual property insurance mechanism, or appropriating at least $10 million in state funds as a premium subsidy or catastrophe backstop for residential wildfire insurance is enacted in New Mexico before Aug 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the legislation to become binding law. Standard legislation requiring executive approval: final passage by all required legislative bodies, executive signature OR becoming law despite executive inaction OR successful veto override, and satisfaction of any required waiting periods Legislation not requiring executive approval: final passage and completion of required waiting periods Constitutional amendments: passage with required supermajorities and completion of ratification processes Executive orders: official signature, publication in official government records, and legal effectiveness The following do NOT constitute enactment: Legislative passage without completed executive action Passage by only some required bodies Provisional passage Non-binding resolutions Draft orders Enactment occurs when all requirements are completed, regardless of pending judicial challenges.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 17 · 7:45 PM UTC
closes
Aug 1, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Aug 8, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXLOCALLAW-NMFAIR-27AUG01
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will New Mexico expand its FAIR Plan?.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.