Mamdani out as NYC Mayor·closes in 3mo

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
0
15.9k lifetime
Open interest
10.2k
+9,791 over 90d
Spread
0 × 1,200 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 100¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volAug 11Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6,55684¢
  • ask55083¢
  • ask78154¢
  • ask1,42546¢
  • ask1,31945¢
  • ask2521¢
  • ask200
  • ask1,200
spreadmid
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Zohran Mamdani leaves as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. An acknowledgment that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.

    opened
    Aug 11 · 1:00 AM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 8, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXMAMDANIOUT-26AUG-27JAN01
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    16d ago511bought yes
    16d ago997bought yes
    16d ago777bought yes
    16d ago800bought yes
    16d ago549bought yes
    16d ago50bought yes
    16d ago25bought yes
    16d ago1,320bought yes
    16d ago562bought yes
    16d ago1bought yes
    16d ago438bought yes
    16d ago100bought yes
    18d ago1bought yes
    26d ago1bought yes
    26d ago1bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.