Manchin run for president in 2028·closes in 18mo

Will Joe Manchin announce a run for President of the United States in 2028?

YES means Yes

24h volume: 0; 693 lifetime
Open interest: 541
Spread: 3¢; 13 × 205 at the touch
24h range: –; 4 recent trades

Chance of YES

25%

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

75%

costs 78¢

YES bid / ask

22¢ / 25¢

NO bid / ask

75¢ / 78¢

Recent buying89% YES · 11% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask52374¢
ask49372¢
ask24971¢
ask1.8867¢
ask15961¢
ask1050¢
ask2039¢
ask20525¢

spread3¢mid 24¢

bid1322¢
bid1621¢
bid20018¢
bid325¢
bid465¢
bid2905¢
bid954¢
bid1,0002¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Joe Manchin has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Mar 1, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources

opened: Sep 23, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: Mar 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Mar 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXMANCHINRUN-28MAR01

Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Joe Manchin run for president in 2028?.

Recent trades

Over the last 4 trades, 89% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
20d ago	25¢	26	bought yes
28d ago	22¢	3	bought no
28d ago	22¢	0.8	bought no
1mo ago	25¢	3.8	bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.