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Matthew McConaughey runs for office·closes in 16mo

Will Matthew McConaughey announce a run for any government office in ANY YEAR?

YES means Yes

24h volume
0
2,726 lifetime
Open interest
1,587
+0 over 7d
Spread
8¢
5 × 300 at the touch
24h range
34¢ – 35¢
32 recent trades
Chance of YES
35%

A YES contract costs 43¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
65%

costs 65¢

YES bid / ask
35¢ / 43¢
NO bid / ask
57¢ / 65¢
24h low 34¢24h high 35¢
Recent buying18% YES · 82% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢30¢40¢50¢60¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10094¢
  • ask1,00193¢
  • ask1289¢
  • ask1,07678¢
  • ask1,27777¢
  • ask31966¢
  • ask12965¢
  • ask30043¢
spread8¢mid 39¢
  • bid535¢
  • bid20034¢
  • bid68925¢
  • bid46910¢
  • bid3,4263¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If, after Issuance and before January 1, 2028, Matthew McConaughey publicly announces that he will run for any government office in any election year and the announcement is reported by a Source Agency, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources. The announcement may concern any government office in any election year. Statements made in character for a scripted production, including the Apple TV+ series Brothers, do not qualify.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 23 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMCCONAUGHEYOFFICE-AR-28JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Matthew McConaughey run for office before 2028?.

Recent trades

Over the last 32 trades, 18% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago35¢0.3bought yes
7d ago34¢200bought no
8d ago39¢29bought no
8d ago38¢200bought no
12d ago41¢8bought no
12d ago42¢200bought yes
12d ago42¢29bought yes
13d ago40¢100bought no
13d ago42¢200bought no
13d ago44¢200bought no
13d ago39¢10bought yes
13d ago42¢5.84bought yes
13d ago43¢200bought yes
13d ago68¢5.65bought yes
22d ago39¢14bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.