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Mercado Libre KPI·closes in 19mo

Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.45 billion items sold in 2026?

YES means Above 3.45 billion

24h volume
0
3,179 lifetime
Open interest
1,699
+1,086 over 7d
Spread
51¢
1,992 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
23 recent trades
Chance of YES
41%

A YES contract costs 53¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
59%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 53¢
NO bid / ask
47¢ / 98¢
Recent buying24% YES · 76% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00099¢
  • ask3,65497¢
  • ask5696¢
  • ask43354¢
  • ask553¢
spread51¢mid 28¢
  • bid1,9922¢
  • bid1,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If MercadoLibre Inc. reports Above 3450000000.0 items sold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 23 · 3:13 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2028 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 31, 2028 · 9:00 PM UTC
floor
3450000000
ticker
KXMELIA-28JANITEMS-3450000000.0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 23 trades, 24% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago41¢0.21bought yes
4d ago35¢200bought no
4d ago41¢200bought no
4d ago47¢50bought no
4d ago48¢23bought no
4d ago45¢200bought no
4d ago45¢70bought no
4d ago45¢444bought no
4d ago46¢50bought no
7d ago38¢40bought yes
7d ago38¢178bought yes
7d ago38¢25bought yes
7d ago38¢200bought yes
7d ago42¢0.63bought yes
7d ago42¢119bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.