Mercado Libre KPI·closes in 19mo

Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.5 billion items sold in 2026?

YES means Above 3.5 billion

24h volume
1
7,786 lifetime
Open interest
2,380
+2,380 over 90d
Spread
25¢
129 × 5 at the touch
24h range
21¢ – 21¢
48 recent trades
Chance of YES
21%3

A YES contract costs 30¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
79%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
/ 30¢
NO bid / ask
70¢ / 95¢
24h low 21¢24h high 21¢
Recent buying25% YES · 75% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

25¢50¢75¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00099¢
  • ask1398¢
  • ask2,87485¢
  • ask4684¢
  • ask1,45339¢
  • ask531¢
  • ask530¢
spread25¢mid 18¢
  • bid129
  • bid2,209
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If MercadoLibre Inc. reports Above 3500000000.0 items sold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 23 · 3:13 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2028 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 31, 2028 · 9:00 PM UTC
floor
3500000000
ticker
KXMELIA-28JANITEMS-3500000000.0
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 48 trades, 25% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago21¢1bought no
2d ago25¢35bought no
2d ago24¢279bought no
2d ago24¢146bought no
2d ago28¢500bought no
3d ago23¢200bought yes
3d ago23¢100bought yes
3d ago25¢155bought yes
3d ago23¢300bought yes
3d ago23¢0.01bought yes
4d ago24¢500bought no
4d ago24¢333bought no
4d ago24¢6bought no
4d ago24¢151bought no
4d ago24¢176bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.