Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 4th District House election be at least 19 percentage points?
YES means Stanton, 19+ pts
- 24h volume
- 0
- 1,371 lifetime
- Open interest
- 435
- +20 over 7d
- Spread
- 5¢
- 15 × 5 at the touch
- 24h range
- 51¢ – 51¢
- 7 recent trades
A YES contract costs 50¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 55¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 4th District by 19 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
- opened
- May 5 · 8:21 PM UTC
- closes
- Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
- floor
- 19
- ticker
- KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ04D-P19
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Recent trades
Over the last 7 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | 51¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 1d ago | 51¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 1d ago | 51¢ | 10 | bought yes |
| 1d ago | 51¢ | 35 | bought yes |
| 29d ago | 51¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 36¢ | 100 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 35¢ | 5 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.