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Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Eric Jones in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?

YES means Eric Jones, 5+ pts

24h volume
0
0 lifetime
Open interest
0
+0 over 90d
Spread
9¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 94¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10099¢
  • ask7099¢
  • ask41164¢
  • ask25016¢
  • ask515¢
spread9¢mid 11¢
  • bid2006¢
  • bid701¢
  • bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Eric Jones wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Eric Jones minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Eric Jones if Eric Jones wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Eric Jones loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Eric Jones runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Eric Jones will be summed. If Eric Jones wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Eric Jones loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Eric Jones ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Eric Jones is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 8 · 6:37 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
5
ticker
KXMIDTERMMOV-CA04EJON-P5
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.