Will the margin of victory for Angela Gonzales-Torres in CA-34 be at least 15 percentage points?
YES means Angela Gonzales-Torres, 15+ pts
- 24h volume
- 0
- 0 lifetime
- Open interest
- 0
- Spread
- 9¢
- 200 × 5 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
A YES contract costs 17¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 92¢
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How this market resolves
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If Angela Gonzales-Torres wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 34th District by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Angela Gonzales-Torres minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Angela Gonzales-Torres if Angela Gonzales-Torres wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Angela Gonzales-Torres loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Angela Gonzales-Torres runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Angela Gonzales-Torres will be summed. If Angela Gonzales-Torres wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Angela Gonzales-Torres loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Angela Gonzales-Torres ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Angela Gonzales-Torres is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
- opened
- Sep 8 · 6:37 PM UTC
- closes
- Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC
- floor
- 15
- ticker
- KXMIDTERMMOV-CA34AGON-P15
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Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.