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Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Iowa be at least 2 percentage points?

YES means Hinson, 2+ pts

24h volume
2,238
4,666 lifetime
Open interest
3,321
+2,715 over 90d
Spread
6¢
88 × 200 at the touch
24h range
47¢ – 51¢
36 recent trades
Chance of YES
51%+5

A YES contract costs 51¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
49%

costs 55¢

YES bid / ask
45¢ / 51¢
NO bid / ask
49¢ / 55¢
24h low 47¢24h high 51¢
Recent buying72% YES · 28% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢volJun 26Sep 23

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2893¢
  • ask10065¢
  • ask560¢
  • ask50056¢
  • ask36055¢
  • ask20554¢
  • ask7753¢
  • ask20051¢
spread6¢mid 48¢
  • bid8845¢
  • bid20044¢
  • bid15141¢
  • bid60040¢
  • bid30033¢
  • bid1426¢
  • bid31325¢
  • bid5502¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 28 · 1:02 AM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
2
ticker
KXMIDTERMMOV-IASENR-P2
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 36 trades, 72% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6m ago50¢5bought yes
6m ago51¢2.67bought yes
10h ago51¢20bought yes
11h ago47¢109bought no
16h ago49¢200bought yes
16h ago48¢600bought yes
16h ago47¢600bought yes
16h ago50¢402bought yes
16h ago48¢200bought yes
18h ago47¢2bought yes
18h ago47¢98bought yes
1d ago46¢140bought yes
4d ago53¢65bought no
4d ago43¢64bought no
4d ago44¢400bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.