Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 1st District House election be at least 26 percentage points?

YES means Jackson, 26+ pts

24h volume: 50; 5,856 lifetime
Open interest: 785; +50 over 7d
Spread: 3¢; 200 × 200 at the touch
24h range: 90¢ – 90¢; 6 recent trades

Chance of YES

90%+1

A YES contract costs 94¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

10%

costs 9¢

YES bid / ask

91¢ / 94¢

NO bid / ask

6¢ / 9¢

24h low 90¢24h high 90¢

Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask5099¢
ask4099¢
ask20094¢

spread3¢mid 93¢

bid20091¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Illinois's 1st District by 26 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources

official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>

opened: May 5 · 8:22 PM UTC
closes: Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor: 26
ticker: KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D-P26

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 6 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
5h ago	90¢	50	bought no
10d ago	89¢	200	bought no
15d ago	92¢	20	bought no
15d ago	92¢	18	bought no
15d ago	90¢	26	bought no
24d ago	90¢	200	bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.