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Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 1 percentage points?

YES means Collins, 1+ pts

24h volume
0
8,195 lifetime
Open interest
3,078
+488 over 30d
Spread
5¢
200 × 349 at the touch
24h range
–
36 recent trades
Chance of YES
31%

A YES contract costs 29¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
69%

costs 76¢

YES bid / ask
24¢ / 29¢
NO bid / ask
71¢ / 76¢
Recent buying83% YES · 17% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢volAug 24Sep 23

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask82264¢
  • ask1,54763¢
  • ask1,29562¢
  • ask7261¢
  • ask20033¢
  • ask50031¢
  • ask60030¢
  • ask34929¢
spread5¢mid 27¢
  • bid20024¢
  • bid60023¢
  • bid60022¢
  • bid60021¢
  • bid518¢
  • bid2307¢
  • bid5507¢
  • bid3154¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 28 · 1:02 AM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
1
ticker
KXMIDTERMMOV-MESENR-P1
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 36 trades, 83% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago31¢30bought yes
1d ago29¢1bought yes
3d ago25¢1bought no
3d ago33¢26bought yes
4d ago30¢16bought yes
8d ago34¢250bought yes
8d ago35¢167bought yes
27d ago32¢25bought no
27d ago32¢17bought no
1mo ago36¢47bought no
2mo ago37¢100bought yes
2mo ago37¢100bought yes
2mo ago37¢40bought yes
2mo ago37¢9bought yes
2mo ago37¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.