Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 3rd District House election be at least 11 percentage points?

YES means Republicans, 11+ pts

24h volume: 0; 400 lifetime
Open interest: 400; +0 over 7d
Spread: 8¢; 200 × 5 at the touch
24h range: –; 2 recent trades

Chance of YES

79%

A YES contract costs 78¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

21%

costs 30¢

YES bid / ask

70¢ / 78¢

NO bid / ask

22¢ / 30¢

Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask84195¢
ask64795¢
ask22690¢
ask15890¢
ask25079¢
ask578¢

spread8¢mid 74¢

bid20070¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Missouri's 3rd District by 11 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources

official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>

opened: May 5 · 8:24 PM UTC
closes: Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor: 11
ticker: KXMIDTERMMOV-MO03R-P11

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 2 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
10d ago	79¢	200	bought yes
18d ago	70¢	200	bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.