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Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 5th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?

YES means Republicans, 6+ pts

24h volume
0
2,575 lifetime
Open interest
915
Spread
4¢
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
28 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 6¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 98¢
Recent buying51% YES · 49% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask48784¢
  • ask20081¢
  • ask7354¢
  • ask14348¢
  • ask25947¢
  • ask2006¢
spread4¢mid 4¢
  • bid52¢
  • bid1232¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Missouri's 5th District by 6 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources
opened
May 5 · 8:21 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
6
ticker
KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R-P6
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 28 trades, 51% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago4¢25bought no
5d ago5¢375bought yes
11d ago9¢10bought yes
11d ago9¢15bought yes
11d ago9¢1bought yes
11d ago20¢1bought no
11d ago33¢100bought no
12d ago30¢5bought no
12d ago21¢5bought yes
12d ago9¢200bought yes
12d ago4¢200bought yes
13d ago4¢140bought yes
13d ago4¢10bought yes
16d ago17¢2bought yes
16d ago15¢200bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.