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Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 5th District House election be at least 9 percentage points?

YES means Republicans, 9+ pts

24h volume
0
2,001 lifetime
Open interest
803
+803 over 90d
Spread
5¢
0 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
21 recent trades
Chance of YES
20%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
80%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 100¢
Recent buying24% YES · 76% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volJul 4Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5060¢
  • ask49057¢
  • ask2545¢
  • ask1638¢
  • ask2035¢
  • ask2330¢
  • ask2525¢
  • ask2005¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Missouri's 5th District by 9 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

    Settlement sources
    opened
    May 5 · 8:21 PM UTC
    closes
    Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
    floor
    9
    ticker
    KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R-P9
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 21 trades, 24% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    11d ago20¢4bought no
    11d ago20¢10bought no
    11d ago20¢1bought no
    11d ago23¢40bought no
    11d ago24¢53bought no
    12d ago23¢5bought no
    12d ago24¢5.2bought yes
    12d ago25¢20bought yes
    12d ago26¢170bought yes
    13d ago16¢5bought yes
    13d ago5¢200bought yes
    13d ago5¢140bought no
    16d ago11¢200bought no
    18d ago10¢9.13bought no
    18d ago16¢20bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.