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Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Jersey's 7th District House election be at least 5 percentage points?

YES means Bennett, 5+ pts

24h volume
0
521 lifetime
Open interest
304
Spread
57¢
0 × 56 at the touch
24h range
–
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
46%

A YES contract costs 57¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
54%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 57¢
NO bid / ask
43¢ / 100¢
Recent buying14% YES · 86% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask68084¢
  • ask5580¢
  • ask20079¢
  • ask10575¢
  • ask5570¢
  • ask1067¢
  • ask565¢
  • ask5657¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New Jersey's 7th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

    Settlement sources
    opened
    May 5 · 8:20 PM UTC
    closes
    Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
    floor
    5
    ticker
    KXMIDTERMMOV-NJ07D-P5
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 12 trades, 14% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    28d ago50¢40bought no
    28d ago46¢16bought no
    28d ago53¢9bought no
    28d ago52¢200bought no
    29d ago53¢10bought yes
    1mo ago50¢10bought no
    1mo ago64¢4bought yes
    2mo ago55¢5bought yes
    2mo ago54¢2.09bought no
    2mo ago56¢3.74bought yes
    2mo ago55¢5bought yes
    2mo ago55¢18bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.