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Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in New York be at least 16 percentage points?

YES means Hochul, 16+ pts

24h volume
0
3,498 lifetime
Open interest
2,504
Spread
5¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
59%

A YES contract costs 51¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
41%

costs 54¢

YES bid / ask
46¢ / 51¢
NO bid / ask
49¢ / 54¢
Recent buying32% YES · 68% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask38580¢
  • ask20077¢
  • ask876¢
  • ask20053¢
  • ask1552¢
  • ask551¢
spread5¢mid 49¢
  • bid20046¢
  • bid49825¢
  • bid47621¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in New York by 16 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 29 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
16
ticker
KXMIDTERMMOV-NYGOVD-P16
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 32% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago59¢0.99bought yes
1d ago58¢38bought yes
1d ago54¢200bought yes
1d ago53¢1bought yes
1d ago47¢1bought no
2d ago25¢1bought no
2d ago64¢100bought no
2d ago64¢100bought no
2d ago25¢1bought no
2d ago37¢1bought no
4d ago34¢1bought no
4d ago36¢100bought no
4d ago36¢1bought no
4d ago45¢200bought no
5d ago45¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.