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Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Ohio be at least 6 percentage points?

YES means Acton, 6+ pts

24h volume
55
1,032 lifetime
Open interest
432
−134 over 7d
Spread
5¢
600 × 5 at the touch
24h range
21¢ – 22¢
18 recent trades
Chance of YES
21%−3

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
79%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 83¢
24h low 21¢24h high 22¢
Recent buying64% YES · 36% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢25¢30¢volSep 16Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3055¢
  • ask3050¢
  • ask5438¢
  • ask5026¢
  • ask65025¢
  • ask59624¢
  • ask1523¢
  • ask522¢
spread5¢mid 20¢
  • bid60017¢
  • bid60016¢
  • bid60015¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Ohio by 6 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 29 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
6
ticker
KXMIDTERMMOV-OHGOVD-P6
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 18 trades, 64% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
22h ago21¢20bought no
22h ago22¢15bought no
22h ago21¢20bought no
2d ago21¢8.34bought yes
2d ago20¢100bought yes
2d ago24¢227bought yes
2d ago19¢15bought yes
11d ago15¢82bought no
11d ago14¢34bought no
12d ago16¢15bought no
12d ago15¢8.44bought no
13d ago21¢12bought yes
13d ago20¢6.65bought yes
19d ago16¢3bought no
19d ago16¢9.04bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.